The Dodgers just signed aging center-fielder Kenny Lofton to a one-year contract in a continuing string of moves that I support. (This is the Dodgers longest such streak in a while.) Lofton still can get on base at a reasonable clip, so I think getting him for one year is a good move despite his age. While the Dodgers overpaid for Furcal, we only signed him to a three-year deal and Nomaaaah and Lofton were given one-year contracts, so we're not likely to be saddled with any huge albatrosses. (Just ask the Blue Jays about BJ Ryan and AJ Burnett in a couple years. Those two are fine pitchers, but they are not worth anything close to the contracts the Jays gave them.)
The Dodgers signing of Bill Mueller for a couple years was also a reasonable move.
So what do you think the Dodgers' batting order is gonna look like on Opening Day?
ReplyDeleteThis exercise is an excellent excuse to avoid the paper-writing and second-order averaging (take II, after I start with the wrong equations when I did this a few weeks ago) I should be doing---I did this really long, nasty series of calculations that took me a while and then realized that I had started with the wrong equations. Damnit. It's a great way to delay finishing up a paper by a month. (Actually, it would be only about a week to 10 days. The rest of the delay is due to sickness and other distractions.)
ReplyDeleteAnyway, on to the batting order (assuming JD Drew is healthy and things like that)...
I would bat Lofton first (and put Mueller second and Furcal towards the bottom of the lineup), but my gut feeling is that Furcal is going to bat leadoff at first. (The issue is that Lofton consistently has a better OBP, but we gave Furcal a big contract.) Here's what's likely:
1. Rafael Furcal, SS
2. Kenny Lofton, CF (or sometimes Bill Mueller, 3B)
3. JD Drew, RF
4. Jeff Kent, 2B (sometimes switch Kent and Drew)
5. Nomaaaah, 1B
6. Bill Mueller, 3B
7. Jose Cruz Jr, LF
8. Dioner Navarro, C
9. Pitcher
Note: Shortstop Cesar Izturis is on the DL until at least July. Before the Dodgers got Nomar, there were rumors that either he or Furcal would move to second when he returned and Kent would move to first. I suppose now we would have to add Nomar going to LF or something.
Jason Phillips will get a good amount of playing time at catcher, but Navarro should start around 70% of the time. (I wouldn't be horribly surprised if we tried to trade Phillips for a serviceable reliever because we can use Alomar Jr. as the #2 catcher instead of the #3 catcher.) Hee-Seop Choi may well end up getting traded as well because now he has nowhere to play. We could keep him as a backup, but I suspect it may be better to get some value for him while he is young and not yet pidgeonholed as a backup player. We already have some very good bench players, such as Jayson Werth, Ricky Ledee, and (especially) Olmedo Saenz.
The final note is that JD Drew will likely spend a lot of time on the DL, so if that happens once Izturis comes back, we would probably put Cruz Jr. in right, Nomar in left, and Kent at first. If Izturis isn't yet back, I assume that Ledee and Jayson Werth would platoon. (Actually, I can also see us possibly trading Werth before he gets pidgeonholed.)
If Drew and Nomar stay healthy, this is a very strong lineup, but you know that those two will miss a decent chunk of time, so I can't reasonably expect to have our A lineup as much as I'd like.
Thanks. That line up strikes me as a definite pennant contender if, as you say, you all stay relatively injury-free.
ReplyDeleteAn additional note: After I wrote this entry, the Dodgers didn't offer Jason Phillips a contract (they non-tendered him instead of going to arbitration), so he is now off our roster.
ReplyDelete