Jim Thome joined the 500 career homerun club today, joining an increasingly long list of players to achieve a milestone that has become far more run-of-the-mill than it used to be. Thome's achievement today was done in a particularly dramatic fashion, as it was a walk-off job that gave the also-ran White Sox a victory over the Angels.
Because 500 homeruns doesn't have the significance that it used to, it is no longer considered a milestone that comes makes somebody a "lock" for the Hall of Fame (issues like steroids notwithstanding; I mean a lock in the absence of such extracurricular activities). The reason this milestone has lost its former significance is simply that baseball's current era is much more oriented towards offense than previous ones, as one can see (among other means) by how many home runs it now takes to lead the league. (With this context, we can also see how truly amazing the accomplishments of pitchers like Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez have been!) Of course, one simple number shouldn't be more than a surrogate for a more exacting analysis. Jose Canseco and Dave Kingman both his about 450 homeruns, and you can't tell me that they would be a Hall of Fame "lock" in any era just by achieving a particular round number. A much more accurate statement is that most people with 500 homeruns (again, ignoring extracurricular activities) tend to have careers that make them Hall of Fame locks, but it's not the number itself that makes them a lock.
So, whither Jim Thome? Here is a very interesting article by Rob Neyer on Thome's Hall candidacy. Neyer compares him to other MVP candidates and notes correctly that the MVP voters haven't treated him that well, so one would expect the Hall of Fame voters (a similar crowd in spirit and containing, I believe, some of the same people) to treat him similarly unless his counting stats (numbers of homeruns, RBIs, and so on) are overwhelming. That's not a statement of whether he should be in the Hall of Fame but rather whether he'd be voted in if he stopped playing today. Given the inflation in the numbers of homeruns in recent years, the expectation is that he would not be voted in if he retired today. Instead, Thome will probably have to get up to 600 homeruns, which some people claim is "the new 500 homeruns."
Do I think Thome should get elected to the Hall if he retired today? I'm not sure. Thome is one of the canonical examples of what has become known as a "three outcome player": a majority of his at bats result in a homerun, a walk, or a strikeout. This gives Thome a very high OPS, but he is very much a one-dimensional player. He contributed negatively on defense until he became a DH, he lumbers around the bases, and so on. Thome is currently 37 years old and still hits very well, so there's a very good chance that he has a few good years left. He likely will hit 600 homeruns and compile enough counting stats to get himself deserved enshrinement in the Hall of Fame by virtue of being very good for a very long time (see Don Sutton for an example of a pitcher who elected in that way). Thome has never really shined the way Frank Thomas did for several years*, but by the time he retires, I believe that Thome's counting stats (collectively, not just the homeruns) will be sufficiently overwhelming that (barring information surfaces about performance-enhancing substances; see Rafael Palmeiro for a player who would have gotten elected via the 'very good for a very long time' route if that stuff hadn't surfaced) he'll eventually have a spot in baseball's Hall of Fame.
* Frank Thomas deserved first-ballot election to the Hall long before he got his 500th homerun. Anybody who looks at his stats and doesn't see just how much he dominated the game for over a decade has not been paying attention. Frank Thomas is not a marginal Hall of Famer. he is a mortal lock and on the short list of the very best hitters of all time.
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