Well, it's official: Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice are now members of Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame. Henderson, in his first year of eligibility, was named on 94.8% of the ballots. This means that 28 of the 539 voters are morons. Rickey should have been named on every ballot. And if you don't believe me, you can just ask Rickey. Jim Rice, on the other hand, was in his 15th and final year on the ballot and joins a bunch of other great players who should need to buy a ticket to get into the Hall of Fame. So it goes.
There are also some notable names who got shut out. Mark McGwire would already be in the Hall if it weren't for the whole steroid business. He blew it. Andrew Dawson inched up to 67.0% of the vote, and he'll make it pretty soon---maybe as early as next year though more likely in 2011. Bert Blyleven is at 62.7% and should already have been elected to the Hall years ago. Blyleven isn't even a borderline case. It's ridiculous. Also not borderline is Tim Raines, who was named on a paltry 22.6% of the ballots but is also a no-doubt Hall of Famer. How do the voters not realize just how good he was? Among other things he was much better than Dawson and Rice!
On this page, you can see which players are coming up for election during the next few years. There aren't any obvious first-timers in 2010, though Roberto Alomar deserves to make it. Fred McGriff, Barry Larkin, and probably Edgar Martinez also belong in the Hall, but I think that Alomar is the only one of them with a realistic shot to make it in 2010. Larkin will eventually make it, though he could easily get screwed over like Alan Trammell (who also deserves to be elected). McGriff is an underappreciated player who belongs in the Hall, and whose stats got drowned out from the gaudy numbers of the steroids era. Sigh... Anyway, the lack of obvious first-timers next year will help Dawson and Blyleven a lot and Tim Raines a little bit. (That's why I think Dawson has a chance to make it next year.) Among the 2011 crowd, Jeff Bagwell will make it eventually, though I doubt he'll get the first-time election he deserves. Rafael Palmeiro would have been an obvious first-time choice, but he's going to be following McGwire's path in the voting. Larry Walker will get some votes, but he's another great player who isn't quite good enough for the Hall. 2012 is quite a weak year. Bernie Williams will get some votes and may ultimately be elected. Tim Salmon will get a few votes as well, but he'll never make it. The fact that we have some relatively light years coming up bodes well for Dawson and Blyleven, and maybe we can get the campaign going for Tim Raines before people forget about him the way they've done with Alan Trammell. Here is one person's list of 40 future Hall of Famers.
Finally, let's talk about Rickey Henderson some more. Here is an excellent article with several cool stories about Rickey being Rickey. Tim Kurkjian also has a few Rickey Henderson stories. I am very eagerly looking forward to Rickey's acceptance speech. And I'm not the only one, as Jim Caple has anticipated what Rickey might say. Rickey's ego was just as prominent as his performance. He was also quite a character, and I expect this his speech will reflect that.
I think it's interesting that there's not more talk about Rickey's likely (IMO) use of steroids.
ReplyDeleteAs an SFG fan, it really makes me sad that Matt Williams got only 1.9%. I know that he's been implicated in the Vitamin S scandal through the dirty dentist, but here's a guy who was on pace to hit 62 and make a strong play for the Triple Crown in strike-shortened '94. Also, Bonds wouldn't have been nearly as productive without MW's protection in the lineup.
I hope Bagwell gets in earlier than the 15th-and-final ballot; in fact, I'd love to see him get selected in his 3rd year of eligibility -- which would be Beeej's first year of eligibility. He's a clear first-ballot choice for me.
Who gets discussed in connection with steroids seems to include a mixture of those caught, those who are implicated by books/Mitchell Report, and a completely random selection of others. (I'm pretty sure Sosa was never mentioned in any of the books, yet he's been considered strongly under suspect.) People like witch hunts as well, so one sees a lot of differential treatment as a result of this.
ReplyDeleteMatt Williams getting 1.9% doesn't bother me so much after seeing Albert Belle kicked off the ballot, Orel lasting only onto hi 2nd ballot, etc. We will continue to see more good players who are below Hall level only last a small number of ballots.
It would indeed be very nice see Bagwell and Biggio make it during the same year, and I agree that Bagwell isn't the borderline case that people make him out to be. I find this unlikely to happen, though, because also debuting with Biggio will be Piazza, Clemens, Sosa, etc. That's a pretty dense set of debuts. Bagwell will make it well before his last ballot, but maybe not as soon as his third.
Bernie Williams will get in much sooner than he should because he's a Yankee and because of the success of the Yankee teams he played on.
ReplyDeleteTotally agree with you on McGriff. Very underrated, mostly because of the teams he played on. Excellent career OBP as well as sufficient numbers in the more traditional statistical categories.
I don't think the 28 voters who didn't vote for Henderson decided not to vote for him because of steroids or any other borderline-legitimate reason. They didn't vote for him because of his personality. They should have their votes take away though, because clearly they have an inability to perform the task they have been charged with. It may seem small, but stuff like that matters. For example, Kareem Abdul Jabbar won more MVPs than Michael Jordan because .... writers got tired of voting for MJ. Jordan should have won 9 MVPs instead of 5. I digress, but the point is that voter incompetence should not be tolerated.
Actually, I'm not sure if the Yankee effect (tm) will be enough to get Bernie in that quickly. Certainly you're right that there will be the usual boost, but I think Bernie's (relatively pedestrian, compared to the elites) counting stats will be a larger effect than his Yankeedom. Also, as far as I can tell, in the minds of New Yawkers he was basically overshadowed by Cap'n Jetes (as Rob Neyer calls him) for his whole career.
ReplyDeleteIt's true that voter incompetence is really bad, but getting these people kicked out of the Old Boys Network isn't ever going to happen. (Apparently, a number of the voters haven't even covered baseball in decades, so it's no wonder that we get asinine situations like people not voting for obvious choices like Henderson.) I usually just restrict myself to ranting about stupid moves on their part.