2026 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Inductees

The Rock & Roll Hall of Fame has announced its 2026 inductess. They include Joy Division/New Order, Billy Idol, Phil Collins, Oasis, and others.

Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner Elected to the Hall of Fame

Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner have been elected to Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame. They join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were elected to the Hall by one of the era committees in December.

As one can see in the voting results, Suzuki was named on every ballot except for one. (Therefore, Mariano Rivera remains the only player who has ever been elected to the Hall unanimously by the baseball writers.) Suzuki and Sabathia are both in their first year of eligibility, and Billy Wagner is in his 10th and final year of eligibility. I initially thought that Sabathia would get about 50% of the vote in his first year, but I saw quickly from the vote tracker (which I follow religiously every year) that he was going to make it this year. For Suzuki, the only question is whether or not he'd be elected unanimously. Wagner missed election last year by a measly 5 votes, so it was clear that he'd make it this year.

The strong election of Sabathia, the stronger-than-I-expected debut of Féliz Hernández (who got 20.6% of the vote), and the big gains of Andy Pettite (who roughly doubled his vote percentage from last year to 27.9% after making essentially no progress for several years) illustrate that the writers are looking much more intelligently than they used to at what constitutes a Hall-of-Fame starting pitcher.

Carlos Beltrán made a lot of progress to reach 70.3% of the vote. The newcomers on the 2026 ballot constitute a weak field, so Beltrán will surely be elected in 2026 and the other holdovers should make strong progress. Andruw Jones improved a little bit to 66.2%, and he may well be elected next year. I think it's about 50/50 that Jones gets elected in 2026 — a selection of ESPN baseball writers are much more optimistic than I am — but I am confident that he'll make it in 2027 (his 10th and final year of eligibility) if he does not make it in 2026. Jones barely survived the 5% cut on the ballot in his first couple of years, so he's made a ton of progress since then. Chase Utley also made a lot of progress this year, going from 28.8% of the vote to 39.8% of it. I expect that he will surpass 50% next year, but I think that he's likely still a few years from election.

Update: Here is Jay Jaffe's post to summarize the voting results and his thoughts on them. The navigation bar at the top of that website gives hyperlinks to his other articles for the 2025 Hall of Fame voting cycle.

Update (1/23/25): Here is Jay Jaffe's extended rundown of the election results.

Update (1/27/25): Here is Jay Jaffe's 5-year forecast of upcoming Hall of Fame elections.

2024 Silver Slugger Awards

Major League Baseball has announced its 2024 Silver Slugger Awards. You'll noticed a few Dodgers among the awardees. :)

Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame!

Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer have been elected to the Major Legaue Baseball Hall of Fame! I knew that Mauer would make the Hall of Fame eventually, but he far surpassed my prediction for how he was going to do this year. I am pleasantly surprised to see him make the Hall on the first ballot, as I thought that he would need to wait a year or two to be elected. Adrián Beltré obviously sailed into the Hall on the first ballot.

Billy Wagner, who was named on 73.8% of the ballots, missed election to the Hall by only 5 votes. He'll make it in 2025, which is his 10th and final year on the writers' ballot. Gary Sheffield was named on 63.9% of the ballots in his final year on the writers' ballot. His Hall case is now in the hands of the various small commitees, and I think (and hope) that he'll make it eventually. Andruw Jones had a small gain to 61.6% and Carlos Beltrán made a sizeable gain to 57.1%. Beltrán has an outside shot to be elected in 2025, but I think that 2026 is more likely. Andruw Jones could also ultimately make it through the writers' ballot, but I think that Beltrán will surpass Jones in the vote total in 2025. One way or another, they'll both eventually make the Hall of Fame. Chase Utley got 28.8% of the vote in his debut on the ballot. He did much better in the public ballots than in the private ones. I do think that Utley will eventually make it, but it's going to be a long road for the more sabermetrically-minded folks to convince others that Utley belongs in the Hall of Fame.

In December, a small committee elected former manager Jim Leyland to the Hall of Fame.

As usual, I have been following the ballot tracker very closely these past couple of months.

A discussion of a few ESPN.com writers of this year's biggest winners and biggest losers, as well as an outlook on the 2025 ballot.

Of the players who can debut on the writers' ballot in 2025, the only plausible Hall of Fame candidates are Ichiro Suzuki and C.C. Sabathia. Ichiro will sail into the Hall of Fame in his ballot debut (and hopefully he'll be elected unanimously, but I am not holding my breath). Sabathia will eventually make it, but I think that it's going to take a few years (say, 4 years).

Update (which I forgot to include in the original text of this post): My prediction for the 2025 balloting is that Ichiro Suzuki and Billy Wagner will be the two players elected. I think that Carlos Beltrán will get around 70% of the vote next year and that Andruw Jones will be in the mid 60s (perhaps around 66%). I think that Chase Utley will probably end up at about 35%. Utley's candidacy appears to be the latest battle in the considerations of old-school versus new-school voters.

Update: Jay Jaffe has written a rundown of the results of this year's writers' ballot.

Update (1/24/24): Here is Jay Jaffe's candidate-by-candidate dissection of this year's writers' ballot.

Update (1/29/24): Here is Jay Jaffe's five-year forecast of Hall of Fame balloting.

Jim Leyland Elected to Baseball's Hall of Fame

Former manager Jim Leyland has been elected to Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame in a vote of the Contemporary Baseball Era Non-Players Committee.

"Leyland received 15 of a possible 16 votes (93.8%), while Piniella received 11 (68.8%), White received 10 (62.5%) and Gaston, Johnson, Montague, Peters and West each received fewer than five votes." A candidate needed to receive 12 or more votes (i.e., from at least 75% of the committee) to be elected.

Jay Jaffe wrote a particularly compelling case in favor of Bill White.

Scott Rolen Elected to Baseball Hall of Fame!

Yesterday, Scott Rolen was elected to Baseball's Hall of Fame in his 6th year of eligibility. He and Fred McGriff (who was elected to the Hall of Fame by an era committee in December) will be officially inducted into the Hall this summer. I am very pleased that both Rolen and McGriff are now in the Hall of Fame!

Scott Rolen is eminently merits his election, and it's great that he got in after several years of rising vote counts. Todd Helton and Billy Wagner made huge gains this year and should be joining the Hall in 2024. Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield also made huge gains, although Sheffield is in his last year of eligibility for election by the writers in 2024 and is likely to instead be elected later by an era committee. It now looks like Andruw Jones will likely be elected by the writers in the next few years (but probably not in 2024) after getting under 8% of the vote (!) in his first year of eligibility. Jeff Kent, who was in his 10th and final year of eligibility, surged to 46.5% of the vote and is likely to be elected later by an era committee. Carlos Beltrán debuted on the ballot with 46.5% of the vote (matching Kent). I expect that Beltrán will get up to the high 50s in 2024, have some chance (but unlikely) of election in 2025, and probably be elected in 2026.

A strong set of players is debuting on the Hall ballot for the 2024 cycle. This set of players is led by Adrián Beltré, who will surely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Joe Mauer also is debuting on the ballot, but I think it will take 2 or 3 years (most likely 2, in my view) for him to get in. Chase Utley is also debuting in 2024. He'll make it eventually, but his counting stats don't stand out, so it's going to take a few years for him to get in (but I think that he will eventually.)

As in each of the past several years, I was closely tracking the Hall of Fame tracker during the past couple of months as writers released their ballots to the public.

Here is Jay Jaffe's recap of the voting results.

Here are some "way too early" predictions (from Bradford Doolittle David Schoenfield) of Hall of Fame results for the next few cycles. For the most part, my views are far closer to Schoenfield's than the Doolittle's.

Update (1/26/23): Jay Jaffe has written his annual ballot round-up of the candidates on this year's ballot.

Update (1/30/23): Jay Jaffe has written his 5-year Hall prognostication.

Albert Pujols Hits 700th Career Home Run!

Albert Pujols just became the 4th player in Major League history with 700 or more career home runs (in the regular season). He hit a 2-run homer against the Dodgers in the 3rd and then a 3-run homer against the Dodgers in the 4th. Now we need to work to erase that 5-run deficit. Obviously, congratulations to Albert! What a career!

Retirement Conference for Colin Please

Unfortunately, I just checked and I am still COVID positive, so regrettably I will be missing the retirement conference and party for my Oxford colleague Colin Please. (Alhough I am far from perfect, I feel well enough to have attended if I weren't still testing positive. I may chat with some people during a break outside and from a safe distance.)

A more general thing to point out, and it relates to the fact that I already interacted with Colin several years before he joined the Oxford faculty — I wonder if he remembers my antics during the 'mock tutorial' part of his Oxford interview? — is that I have always admired and enjoyed just how tightly know the British applied-mathematics community is. People across some many of the institutions know each other really well and often "randomly" show up at events in nearby cities even when their affiliations are different. I miss that.

Congratulations to Colin on his retirement!

David Ortiz Elected to Baseball's Hall of Fame!

The Baseball Hall of Fame results were announced today, and David Ortiz is the only person who was elected by the writers this year. As usual, you can see all of the ballots that have been made public so far at this website. You can also see a discussion of winners and losers from this year's results.

Two of the era committees elected several Hall of Famers last month.

This year, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa were all in their 10th and final years of eligibility. Clems and Bonds crept up to 65% of the vote, but that's still below the 75% that is needed for induction. Schilling, given his repeated crap, lost many votes. With Clemens, Bonds, Schilling, and Ortiz no longer on the ballot next year and few newcomers of note joining the ballot, holdover Scott Rolen (who went up to around 63% of the vote this year) will likely be elected in 2023 (yay!). Newcomer Carlos Beltrán is the only new person on the ballot next year with any chance. The weak ballot will help him, but we'll see how the Astros cheating scandal affects his vote total. Todd Helton and Billy Wagner finally surpassed 50% of the vote this year, and I expect Todd Helton to make another big jump next year. Both merit election, but it it may take some time for Wagner and I think that Helton is more likely to be elected in 2024 than in 2023. Andruw Jones surpassed 40%, so he's also trending upward. Support for Omar Vizquel tanked because of his shenanigans, and he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame anyway. Jimmy Rollins and Alex Rodriguez were the only other newcomers to the ballot besides David Ortiz to get at least 5% of the vote.

We will see how the era committees deal with Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling. They'll get into the Hall eventually (as they should, even with their horseshit), but it may take a while.

Update (1/26/22): Also see the voting round-up from Jay Jaffe.

Update (1/27/22): Here is Jay Jaffe's candidate-by-candidate breakdown of the 2022 voting.

Update (1/31/22): Here is Jay Jaffe's five-year outlook of the Hall of Fame balloting in the writers' ballot.

2020 Nobel Prize in Physics

The 2020 Nobel Prize in Physics was announced today.

The first thing that I noticed was that my Mathematical Institute (Unversity of Oxford) colleague Roger Penrose got half the prize. Additionally, Andrea Ghez from UCLA's physics department shared the other half of the prize with Reinhard Genzel. Ghez also got a Ph.D. from Caltech in 1992, so several of my institutions (and my former home department at Oxford!) did very well today. Congratulations!

Here is the terse citation: 

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Nobel Prize in Physics 2020 with one half to Roger Penrose "for the discovery that black hole formation is a robust prediction of the general theory of relativity" and and the other half jointly to Reinhard Genzel and Andrea Ghez "for the discovery of a supermassive compact object at the centre of our galaxy".

Some other websites to look at are the popular blurb and more advanced information from the Nobel page. Additionally, here are UCLA's press release and a blurb from University of Oxford's Mathematical Institute.

Congratulations to the 2020 Graduates from Our Research Group! (Humans First; Mathematicians Second)

We had our commencement ceremony.

CONGRATULATIONS to the Class of 2020 from the research group!

And thanks to Prof. Chad Topaz for a wonderful commencement speech (one of the best I ever heard and so meaningful to me). Thanks to the guests who joined us.

The graduating class of 2020:

Postdoc: Heather Zinn Brooks

Undergrads: Qinyi Chen, Unchitta Kanjanasaratool, Tony Liu

PhD students: Michelle Feng, Yacoub Kureh, William Oakley

#truecolors

Here are a couple of pictures.

And here is the text of Chad's speech.

"Are mathematicians human?"

I was very unsure of how to begin this speech, and so I did the natural thing: I Googled “graduation speech opening” and I found a site with the following advice, which I am going to obey.

1. Offer formal words recognizing the honored guests.
I hereby decree that this honored group seems familiar; have we met before?

2. Use humor. If you are confident that your humor will work, making everyone laugh will be a great start.
I am confident. Please go ahead and laugh now.

3. Enthusiastically congratulate graduates on their success.
From my heart, congratulations.

4. State the topic of your speech.
Those of you who know me know that I often go against the crowd. Some graduation speech themes are all too common, so I’ll be avoiding the following messages in this speech:
- Challenges are opportunities
- Be yourself
- The world is your oyster
- Love will triumph over all
- With great power comes great responsibility

So, for this speech, I have chosen the topic “Are mathematicians human?"

I was a postdoctoral fellow in this department from 2003 - 2006. During the last year of my postdoc, and wanting desperately to stay in academia, I applied for tenure track jobs. While I was lucky to get a couple of offers, none of the offers would have resolved my dual career couple issues. It seemed reasonable that I'd have a better chance of finding work in Los Angeles than my husband would in rural Maine. So I made one of the hardest decisions of my life: I stayed in Los Angeles and, in doing so, quit being a mathematician. But not before, in a moment of extreme frustration and angst, I committed the only physically violent act of my adult life by hurling a bowl of oatmeal at the wall of my apartment.

Sometimes we don't realize what part of our identity means until we don't have it anymore. I didn't see this coming, but when I could no longer call myself a mathematician, or at least not professionally, I wasn't sure what I was anymore.

The next year of my life began fairly miserably. I worked as a college administrator on another campus in a unit that was a poor fit for me. I had few personal goals other than feeling sorry myself. Gradually, though, things turned around. I slowly built stronger relationships with friends. I got involved in service work related to issues I cared about. I rediscovered how much I loved playing chamber works with other musicians. I reconnected with all of the parts of myself that I had let shrink.

I stopped identifying principally as a mathematician and started identifying principally as a human.

But what makes us human? Characteristics and abilities once thought to distinguish us from other animals -- the use of tools, the ability to recognize ourselves, the size of our brains, and much more -- turn out to be found in various corners of the animal kingdom. Some evidence from the natural sciences, though, does suggest what makes humans unique.

First, we are human because of the degree to which we are wired to help each other. In psychology experiments, children as young as 14 months will spontaneously help a person who is struggling or who looks worried or who drops an item. At age two years, children will help someone who isn't even aware of their own need for help, say, because they didn't realize they had dropped an item. And rewards don't seem to play a role. In experiments on 20 month old toddlers, those who had previously received rewards for being helpful acted equally helpfully as a control group that hadn't received rewards. Other species certainly have been observed to engage in helping behavior, but within different parameters. For instance, close by on the evolutionary tree, chimpanzees will share food. Chimps, however, appear to be far more selective about their helping behavior, sharing only with close relatives or potential mates. In short, humans appear to be wired to be indiscriminately cooperative.

Second, we are human because of our ability to imagine and know things beyond our senses. Take the famous psychology experiment called the Sally-Anne task. In this task, there are two dolls named Sally and Anne. A young child, who is the subject of the experiment, sees Sally putting a marble in a basket while Anne watches. Then Sally leaves the room. While she's gone, Anne removes the marble from the basket and puts it inside a box. Then Sally comes back into the room. The experimenter asks the child where Sally will look for the marble, most children answer that Sally will look in the basket, where she had originally left it. The child knows that the marble is not there, but understands that Sally will have a different thought. Let me emphasize this: it's not merely that the child knows that the marble moved. The child can put themself in the mindset of another person and imagine what that person thinks. On the other hand, in a version of the experiment designed to assess chimpanzees, the chimps generally failed the test.

So two possible answers to "what makes us human" are our level of radical, selfless cooperation and our capacity to put ourselves in the shoes of another, a quality we sometimes refer to as empathy.

This speech would not be authentic if I did not call out that we are living during challenging times. Now let's be real: epidemic disease has been with humankind for a long time, with the earliest records of an influenza-like epidemic coming from central and Southern Asia around 1200 BC. Racial injustice has been with us in the United States since before we even WERE the United States. Still, we seem to be in an especially challenging moment right now, with bungled public health efforts and the continued killing of Black people by the police. It can be hard to believe that cooperation and empathy are our nature. So I take solace in the aforementioned scientific evidence and I say thank goodness for lab experiments.

It's not just on the national and international stages that the better parts of human nature can be obscured. You will have moments in your professional and personal lives when you will have the opportunity to put your humanity second to more immediate or more tangible or just plan easier ends. My message to you today is simple: always, first and foremost, be a human.

I asked Mason to give me a few very brief words about the human qualities of each of you, graduates. Mason respected my request... except for the brevity part! So please know that when I mention each of you, the brevity is mine, not his.

Heather, you are a valued and highly respected source of wisdom.

Michelle, your creativity and passion are inspirational.

Yacoub, you are driven to help, from each individual student up to saving the world.

Will, your good cheer powers not only your own efforts, but lifts those around you.

Quinyi, you have a rare blend of determination and humility.

Unchitta, you have limitless compassion.

Tony, you fearlessly reach out to those in need.

By the way, while today is mostly about you, graduates, it is also a little bit about Mason. It doesn't escape my notice that your advisor displays stellar human qualities as well, which is perhaps why we are drawn to him.

To the seven honored and accomplished celebrants, I wish you hearty congratulations and all the best for the future. Thanks to your hard work and dedication, you are outstanding students, scholars, teachers, mathematicians, thinkers. But most of all, you are outstanding humans.

New 2020 Baseball Hall of Famers

I am a bit late with this post, as I have been traveling and very busy during the past few days.

Anyway, the new Major League Baseball Hall of Famers that were just elected by the writers are Derek Jeter (in his first year of eligibility) and Larry Walker (in his 10th and final year on the writers' ballot). I'm really pleased that Larry Walker was voted in by the writers! He should have made it years ago, but thankfully he made huge gains in each of the last three years (and especially in each of the last two years). For Jeter, the only question was whether he'd be unanimous; one person left him off of their ballot. Jeter and Walker join Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller as 2020's inductees into the Hall of Fame.

This year's vote totals are available at this website, and you can also take a look at the Hall of Fame Voter Tracker, which I was following assiduously in the weeks leading up to the announcement of the new inductees.

Scott Rolen was polling at close to 50% before the results were announced. He gained a ton of votes, but after seeing where he was before the announcement, I was a bit surprised to see the final total at "only" about 35%. Todd Helton made major gains to almost 30%, perhaps because he's no longer on his first ballot. They're in good shape, but it will take a while.

Curt Schilling got to 70%, so he'll make it in 2021. Nobody who has a shot is debuting on the ballot next year (well, maybe Tim Hudson will make it eventually), so 2021 is Schilling's year.

Rogers Clemens and Barry Bonds crept over 60%. I'll be very surprised if the writers elect them, as people have drawn lines in the sand, but one of the current incarnations of the Veterans Committees will put them in the Hall someday.

Omar Vizquel (sigh) broke the 50% barrier, and his eventual election is inevitable.

Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield, and Andruw Jones made big gains. (I wonder if the latter two were helped not only by there being only one obvious newcomer but also by Harold Baines now being in the Hall? Both Jones and Sheffield were much better players than Baines.) We'll see how much Wagner gains over the next years.

Jeff Kent also made major inroads, and he'll likely make it eventually via one of the Veterans Committees.

A bunch of others (such as Manny Ramirez and Sammy Sosa) also gained a decent amount, but I doubt they'll go much of anywhere on the regular ballot (and Sosa has achieved around this many votes in some past years as well, I believe).

Bobby Abreu managed to get just enough votes to stay on the ballot next year. That's good.

And the latest entries in the exactly-one-vote club are Adam Dunn, Brad Penny, Raúl Ibañez, and J. J. Putz (who once hit Kevin Mench with a pitch, marking the only time in Major League Baseball history that a Mench got hit by a Putz).
There aren't any Hall-of-Fame-caliber standouts debuting on the 2021 ballot, so perhaps it will only be Curt Schilling from the regular ballot next year.

David Schoenfield wrote about this year's winners and losers in the Hall of Fame voting.

Here is my blog entry about the result of last year's writers' votes.

Montreal Expos Win First World Series in Franchise History!

I mean The Washington Nationals, of course. ;)

Congratulations to them!

UCLA's 2019 Mathematics Commencement Ceremony

As you can see from the short video below, this is how we do things in the UCLA mathematics commencement ceremony.

(I am the one in bright red. It's because of my Cornell doctoral degree, but these are almost almost Somerville colors. You can tell the birds from the colors of their feathers.)



Many undergrads from my courses, as well as ones who are doing research projects with me, participated in the ceremony.

Before the ceremony, in the mathematics department lounge, our commencement speaker asked me if I was graduating. He said that I look very young, but I am more than a decade older than he is!

Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Roy Halladay, and Mike Mussina Elected to Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame!

Well, we have some spiffy new baseball Hall of Famers: Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Roy Halladay, and Mike Mussina!

This awesome foursome — and I am very pleased about all four of these elections — join Lee Smith and (sigh) Harold Baines, who were elected by the Today's Game Era Committee last month. Rivera, in his first year of eligibility, is the first ever unanimous selection, although there are other luminaries who should already have gotten this distinction years ago. Sadly, the late Roy Halladay (who died tragically in a 2017 plane crash) isn't around to enjoy his election in his first year of eligibility. I thought it might take him a bit of time to get in, and I'm pleased to see Halladay sail into the Hall in his first year. It's sad that he isn't around to enjoy it. :( (By the way, Roy Halladay once wore one of the best costumes ever; he dressed up as Jamie Moyer for an 80s-themed party.) Martinez (in his final year of eligibility) and Mussina finally made it this year, though both of them should have been elected years ago. They are clear-cut Hall of Famers. Pitchers like Mussina are held to ridiculous standards because they didn't win 300 games, and that's just not a realistic level at which to gauge which starters are Hall of Famers and which are not. Mussina was a great pitcher.

For the past several years, I have really enjoyed followed the Hall of Fame tracker as the writers announce their votes.

I'll comment a bit on many (though not all) other players on the 2019 ballot, but to give context, it's worth discussing which new candidates will enter in the 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. The only huge name entering in 2020 is Derek Jeter, who could very well become the second unanimous Hall selection. (Jeter will be close to unanimous, at the very minimum.) There are some other really good players in the 2020 ballot, but I'm not sure if any of them are Hall of Famers. Jason Giambi and the perpetually underrated Bobby Abreu will get some votes, but I don't think that even they will get that many votes. The only newcomer to the ballot with any shot at all — and he is a lock, of course — is Derek Jeter. That gives plenty of scope for remaining candidates to make major increases, which will probably be significantly larger than in a normal year.

The highest voting percentage among those who did not get elected to the Hall is Curt Schilling, who was named on 60.9% of the ballot. With Mussina and Halladay both now in the Hall and no serious candidates among new starting pitchers, I expect Schilling to finally (and belatedly) make it in 2020, as long as he keeps his mouth shut.

Roger Clemens (59.5%) and Barry Bonds (59.1%) kept inching forward, and I'm sure they'll make a bit more progress next year, but they're not still on the ballot because of their performance on the field. I see no reason to think that they'll do anything other than continuing to inch forward.

Larry Walker got 54.6% of the vote in a huge gain, after gaining many votes between 2017 and 2018. Next year is Walker's last one on the ballot, which often results in large gains with one's last chance to think about a player in the regular voting, so I expect that he will follow in Alan Trammell's and Fred McGriff's footsteps and get huge gains again next year. Include the fact that Harold Baines (sigh) is now in the Hall of Fame and that Jeter is the only stellar new candidate in 2020, and I think that Larry Walker will gain hugely in votes again in 2020 and that it will be enough to get elected to the Hall of Fame. Larry Walker was an awesome player and deserves it. Prepare for a lot of discussions about Coors Field in the upcoming year. :)

Omar Vizquel (42.8%) gained a decent number of votes this year, though others were less optimistic about the signs for Vizquel. Vizquel belongs in the Hall of the Very Good — I give thanks to Jim Kaat for inventing that term in reference to himself — and also in the Hall of the Amazing, but he's not a Hall of Famer. Vizquel is destined to become the new Jack Morris (sigh) when it comes to Hall of Fame debates.

Fred McGriff (39.8%), like Alan Trammell previously, received a major boost in his final year on the writers' Hall of Fame ballot. I expect that he'll be selected relatively soon by the Today's Game Committee, likely when it next meets in 2021.

Manny Ramirez (22.8%) stayed level and Jeff Kent (18.1%) gained a little bit, but not much. Jeff Kent is destined for some veterans' committee's vote some years down the line. Scott Rolen (17.2%) gained a decent amount in his second year of eligibility, and I expect him to gain solidly in 2020 as well, possible even enough to get close to 30% of the vote. Billy Wagner (16.7%), in his fourth year of eligibility, gained a little bit. Wagner deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and I hope the selection of Lee Smith and the lack of realistic new pitcher candidates in 2020 helps him. I suspect that Wagner will become one of the next ones that sabermetricians try to champion, although I think the best move for the next year is concentrating on Larry Walker's candidacy. Todd Helton (16.5%) deserves more votes and may be a Hall of Famer — I think he belongs on the Hall — and I expect him to make major gains next year. Andruw Jones (7.5%) keeps lingering on the ballot — once again finishing slightly above the 5% cutoff to be removed from the ballot — and he deserves much better than this. Jones's career petered out quickly, and people seem to have forgotten just how good a player he was. I don't think he actually belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I'd like to see him get more consideration than this. Among the players who fell off the ballot, Lance Berkman (1.2%) deserved much more consideration for the Hall than he got.

In the 2020 ballot, I predict that Derek Jeter (obviously), Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker make the Hall of Fame. I am least confident about the prediction about Walker, who may end up just falling shy. The fact that there are so few new stellar candidates and that the ballot has cleared up considerably (McGriff is also no longer on the ballot) will help many players make major gains in voting, likely including enough of them for both Curt Schilling and Larry Walker to get elected.

Update (1/26/19) Here are some lessons learned (according to Jay Jaffe) from the balloting results. One of the things that I noticed in this article, which I hadn't noticed earlier this week (but presumably did at some point in the past), is that the players who are debuting in 2021 are also weak overall. Therefore, there are two years for players who are currently on the ballot to make major gains. Jaffe wrote more details in this article.

Ohtani and Acuña Jr. are the 2018 Rookies of the Year!

The Angels' Shohei Ohtani, who is both a position player and a pitcher, was the run-away winner of the American League Rookie of the Year Award. I knew he had a good chance, but I thought the balloting was going to be a tight three-way race between Ohtani, and Yankee infielders Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres. You can find the rankings and point totals on this page. In the National League, the balloting went as expected: the Braves' Ronald Acuña Jr. is the Rookie of the Year, Juan Soto of the Nationals finished second, and Walker Buehler of the Dodgers finished a distant third. (The final ranking and point totals are both available in the link above.)

The 2018 class of Major League Baseball rookies was very strong indeed!

Congratulations to Dr. Alejandro Martínez!

My doctoral student Alejandro Martínez has now officially finished his D.Phil. (i.e., Ph.D.), with a dissertation called Disordered Granular Crystals.

His thesis work includes several awesome papers, including this one, this one, this one, this one, and this one. (Alejandro also has additional papers from his thesis era that are in collaboration with other people.)

Alejandro is now a postdoctoral scholar in computational biology in Chile.

Albert Pujols gets his 3000th Career Hit!

Albert Pujols collected his 3000th career hit tonight, becoming the 32nd member of the club. He is one of four Major Leaguers with at least 600 homeruns and at least 3000 hits.

Congratulations to Dr. Se-Wook Oh!

Congratulations to my D.Phil. student, Dr. Se-Wook Oh, who has officially earned his doctorate from the Mathematical Institute at University of Oxford. (Jon Chapman was nominally added as a local co-supervisor after I moved to UCLA.) His thesis, in corrected form, has officially been approved.

The title of Se-Wook's thesis is Complex Contagions with Lazy Adoption. You can read about some of Se-Wook's work in our joint paper, which was published recently in Chaos.

Congratulations to Dr. Paul Brodersen

My D.Phil. student Dr. Paul Brodersen has officially finished his corrections for his thesis and has now officially graduated. His thesis, which was supervised jointly by Colin Akerman of Pharmacology and me, is called Relating Neuronal Coding to Network Architecture.

Congratulations!