2006 Baseball Hall-of-Fame ballot

The 2006 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot was released yesterday. Players have to have been retired for 5 years and then can stay on the ballot for 15 years if they reach a threshold number of votes (amounting to 5% of all ballots cast) in a given year (and don't get enough votes to be elected). Players (and managers and others) can be elected via the Veterans Committee if the conventional way (which applies only to players) doesn't work out, but it's pretty hard to get into the Hall that way these days.

A notable absence from this year's ballot is Pete Rose, still banned for life from baseball and thus ineligible to appear on the ballot. (The 'still' in the previous sentence suggests that there are means to lift the ban.) This counts as year 15 for Rose because of when he retired, so he may have to get in another way if he's ever reinstated. Anyway, as much as his deeds were bad, Rose was a Hall of Fame player and, in fact, an upper-echelon Hall of Famer and he belongs in the hallowed halls of Cooperstown, which are supposed to be about his in-game performance. There are plenty of people in the Hall who can be evicted on the same grounds that Rose isn't even allowed on the ballot. (He does get a number of write-ins every year, though not even remotely close to enough to get elected.) Rose belongs in the Hall of Fame (without question)!

OK, so let's deal with who is actually on the ballot. Here's my opinion (of who should and should not get in, not of who will and will not):


Hell no (we won't go): Dary DiSarcina, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Ozzie Guillen, Gregg Jefferies, Willie McGee, Hal Morris, Walt Weiss

No: Rick Aguilera, Albert Belle, Will Clark, Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, John Wetteland, Dwight Gooden, Doug Jones, Don Mattingly, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Wetteland

Tough call but probably not: Andre Dawson, Orel Hershiser, Dave Parker, Lee Smith

Yes: Bert Blyleven, Rich Gossage, Tommy John, Jim Rice, Bruce Sutter, Alan Trammell



A few things here deserve comment. First, there is no excuse for Bert Blyleven not to have been elected in his first year of eligibility. He had an absolutely superb career and is better than tons of the starting pitchers already in the Hall. It's an absolute crime that he hasn't made it yet. Tommy John and Alan Trammell should be shoo-ins as well. Jim Rice barely makes it in my book and if you compare his stats to those of, e.g., Andre Dawson, Dave Parker, and Dale Murphy, there are certainly some arguments here. Murphy fell of the ledge towards the end of his career, which hurts him. He, Parker, and Dawson also had some OBP issues that hurt them in my book.

Now, Bruce Sutter (who was the closest non-electee from last year and very likely will make it this year) and Rich Gossage were two of the pioneering closers and should also be shoo-ins. I list them separately because there are a lot of closers with more saves who I would not elect, and this includes Lee Smith (the all-time leader in saves). The deal here is that the save is a very misleading statistic and not all saves are created equal. As the all-time save leaders become eligible for the Hall, this is one of the big issues facing the voters. Sutter and Gossage had outstanding careers, where some of the others did not. Lee Smith was merely very good, so he doesn't make the cut in my book even though he's the all-time leader. John Wetteland, Doug Jones, and Rick Aguilera were also merely very good. (Smith gets extra credit for longevity and counting stats.)

A lot of people think that Don Mattingly and Steve Garvey should make it. Mattingly's problem was that his career was cut short by back problems. At his peak, he did perform at Hall caliber, but he didn't sustain it. Garvey was very good rather than excellent. A lot of people also think Jack Morris should make it, but his 3.90 ERA would become the highest one in the Hall. Many of his wins came from run support rather than performance. His career was also very good, but I can't justify his presence in the Hall.

It pains me to say 'no' on Hershiser. There are actually a number of arguments for him and with his best years on the Dodgers, my heart wants to vote for him. However, my head puts him just below the threshold. Dwight Gooden had a good career, but with him, we're always going to imagine what might have been. He still won close to 200 games but that's far below what everybody though would be the case early in his career. Unfortunately, his best year in the majors came in 1985 when he was 21. He was truly amazing at his peak!

Albert Belle looked like he was heading to the Hall of Fame, but his career was shortened by injuries and I just don't think he has the longevity to justify it. His stats are great, but I think the early exit and presence in a hitter-happy era is going to kill his chances. (In comparing his stats to Will Clark and especially Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, et al, the average offensive output needs to be considered. Mattingly stands out in his own era, even though his totals don't look as gaudy as they should when one compares them to what we see now. Hitting 30 HR in a season used to be quite an impressive feat, and it's easy to forget that.)

For the 'hell no's, I should mention that they include some fine players, such as Gregg Jefferies (when he was healthy), Gary Gaetti, etc. Even Gary DiSarcina, probably one of the worst players to ever appear on the Hall-of-Fame ballot, had a couple decent seasons. (I believe one has to be around for 10 years to be eligible for the ballot.)

As far as who will get elected this year, my guess is Sutter and perhaps also Alan Trammell plus possible people via the Veterans Committee (though that's tough) and the yearly broadcaster and journalist. (The latter two are technically through a yearly award, so there's always one of each per year.)